Alan Walsh’s 3rd Season of NFL Picks – Week 1

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Alan Walsh’s 3rd Season of NFL Picks – Week 1

Over the last two years I have picked NFL winners on my site, 14ASports.com. In both of those seasons I hovered around the 70% mark, which is right where you want to be. Anything over 50% in this industry is actually where you want to be…just win!

In a league that is becoming competitive more and more each year, it’s important to stick with what you know in the NFL. There will be times where I’ll explain why a team is going to win/cover but sometimes it’s just as easy as going against the majority of the public which always jumps at the obvious favorite.

One thing you’ll see a lot this season from me is that I like to buy a lot of points, meaning that the spread will become an easier target for you to hit. Most places usually charge $10/point so if you’re trying to make a spread go from +5.5 to +7, typically on a $100 you’ll be risking about $130-140. Bought points add to the misery when you don’t hit on a game, but I’d rather have those extra points to work with.

Picking NFL games is no easy task and it’s ludicrous to think that someone will be right 100% of the time. In doing this column, I understand that there will be games that I completely whiff on. THIS WEEKLY COLUMN IS FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY!!! I take the time to do the research and offer my best hand at what I feel will happen in the game.

If you bet my picks on your own and I end up going perfect more weeks than not, please don’t send me cash in the mail. On the flip side, if I’m not winning many games then physical/death threats to my name are certainly not welcomed either. As I said, these are for entertainment purposes only- use these picks at your discretion and I am not responsible for any money that you may win or lose.

Seattle -6 over Green Bay

With the house rocking and a new crowd noise record being broken each home game, there’s no better team in the NFL than the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. That alone is going to make Seattle an overwhelming favorite at home each game this season, but for tonight, there’s an even bigger reason to feel comfortable with them winning.

The injury of JC Tretter, the starting center for the Green Bay Packers, is going to prove monumental in this one. Tretter had a fracture in his left knee two weeks ago in a preseason game against the Oakland Raiders and it looks like he’s heading to short-term IR. Enter into the equation, rookie Corey Linsley, who will be taking Tretter’s place.

Linsley hasn’t taken any snaps with Rodgers this preseason. Obviously they have done some work at practice together recently, but come Thursday night his head will be spinning out of control. Linsley will have to deal with an unfamiliar no-huddle type offense, trying to stop Seattle DT Brandon Mebane across from him and a rawkus Seattle crowd which promises to make this a long night for the rookie. Welcome to the NFL, kid!

Seattle’s offense has looked awesome in the preseason, and I know, it’s just preseason. However, the offense was incredibly efficient coming down the stretch last year in their Super Bowl run, and in preseason this year, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has led the offense to points on 11 of his 13 drives.

The line was originally SEA -4.5, moved to -5.5 throughout August and now all the way to -6. This means more and more folks are hopping on the Green Bay bandwagon. I’m quite comfortable with Seattle doing what they need to do tonight in front of their fans.

SEAHAWKS 27 Packers 17

*Check back tomorrow (Friday) for my six-pack of Sunday picks- games include:

  • CLE@PIT
  • BUF@CHI
  • WSH@HOU
  • OAK@NYJ
  • CAR@TB
  • IND@DEN

Alan Walsh | News Cult

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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